It is undoubtedly one of the most current and debated topics of the last few weeks – but not only – in Tuscany and beyond. How long will – this time – the latest “heat wave” last? Timing, but also methods. So here is the latest analysis (here the previous reflection) from the Centro Meteo Toscana with explanations, data (and dates…) and models. But let’s go in order.
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The “desert dust”
«Confirmed intense heat that will continue throughout next week, also with the arrival of “desert dust” starting from Wednesday evening (July 15, ed) and with probable cloud cover between Thursday and Friday, in a typical context of the most significant heat surges from North Africa», writes the Cmt.
Temperatures and areas
And then they go into detail: «According to today’s elaborations (Sunday, July 12, ed), the highest heat peaks will be concentrated between Sardinia, Sicily, and the central south with probable peaks up to 45/46° degrees in the inland areas. In our region, we might manage with some peaks between 39 and 41° degrees and a very sultry climate. Considering that today in Florence we have already reached 38 degrees, it would be more accurate to speak of a continuation of the heat rather than a heat wave».
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Towards a turning point?
«There is, however, good news – they report –. Partly Gfs, but more decisively Gem, hypothesize an air change next weekend with a return at least for a few days, to more “human” temperatures and above all a less sultry climate».
And they specify: «It is too early to understand if there will also be the possibility of a thunderstorm break (for Gfs it seems not, while for Gem yes) but as we wrote days ago, facing a very hot phase seeing at least an end, psychologically would already be a good thing. And according to tonight’s models, there seems to be hope. We will see in the coming days if all this will turn into reality».
