Heat. Still heat. While on the horizon some dates can be seen that could mark the summer. But let’s go in order. Tuscany woke up on the morning of Thursday, August 6 to another scorching day. The Centro Meteo Toscana, in its analysis, describes a picture that confirms a persistent, intense heat wave still far from ending. Although there could be a possible “break.”
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Exceptional heat and new records
“Intense heat continues across all of Europe – explains Centro Meteo Toscana – and clearly our region is at the forefront when it comes to intense heat. No less than 7 stations of the Regional Functional Center on Wednesday, August 5 reached or exceeded 40° with some monthly records surpassed especially in the Arezzo area.” The picture drawn by the experts confirms an extraordinary weather phase, with values exceeding seasonal averages putting pressure on territories and communities. The fourth African pulse of the summer is showing all its strength, while a new warm impulse is preparing on the horizon.
The fifth African pulse: the most intense of the summer?
“The fourth pulse from North Africa is making its full strength felt but on the horizon we already see the fifth, probably the most powerful of all this summer, preparing to make its entrance next week in what could be the hottest week of the entire year.” According to Centro Meteo Toscana, therefore, next week – starting Monday, August 10 – could mark the absolute peak of 2026, with values potentially higher than those recorded so far. A prospect that requires attention, especially in inland areas and cities.
The possible turning point
“However, there is also a faint hope – the Cmt explains further –. The season is running its course and in the forecast tails of the models the long-awaited strengthening of the Atlantic flow is beginning to be seen.” The experts foresee a possible circulation change around August 20, a date already hypothesized in recent weeks. A more decisive entry of Atlantic air could bring a significant temperature drop and a first sign of transition towards milder conditions. “The date we had hypothesized as that of a possible circulation change (August 20) seems more or less respected – continues Centro Meteo Toscana – and indeed, if everything is confirmed, a real air change might even arrive a few days earlier.”
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But the hot dome resists
However, Centro Meteo Toscana warns: “Be careful: do not be fooled by the usual useless announcements about the end of summer or other. The hot air dome present over the Mediterranean will fight hard.” The Cmt calls for caution: even in case of air change, the Mediterranean remains home to a very resistant hot structure. The risk of new African surges is not excluded. “Certainly the days are shortening and with a decisive air change the 40° will be archived until next year – continues the analysis – but the evolution towards autumn will probably be slow and tortuous.”
The day-by-day forecast
Centro Meteo Toscana then goes into the details of the forecast. The next 48 hours will still be marked by very high temperatures, with values approaching 40 degrees in several areas of the region. “Saturday 8, Sunday 9 and Monday 10 August still hot but with a few degrees less and highs up to 37/38° in the plains. Some afternoon thunderstorm outbreaks are not excluded in the Apennines and locally around Amiata and Chianti.” A slight easing of the heat is expected over the weekend, accompanied by possible heat thunderstorms in the mountainous areas. “From Tuesday 11 a new warm surge from North Africa and very hot at least until the 17th. Heat that locally – says the Cmt – could trigger maximum temperatures up to 42 degrees on the inland plains in a very torrid context.” The new African pulse could bring exceptional values, especially in inland areas far from coastal breezes. “From the 17th a decisive air change and a temperature drop of 7/8 degrees with possible quick thunderstorms especially in the inland areas are likely.”
A region that resists the heat
Tuscany is therefore preparing for a new critical phase, with high temperatures and torrid-African conditions that could mark the hottest week of the year. The possible arrival of the Atlantic flow represents a hope, but the transition to autumn still appears long and complex.
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