It will really be a heat emergency. A situation that – it can be said without fear of contradiction – has never occurred in Tuscany. A heat wave that is already historic for its persistence, but now is about to become even more so for its intensity. The Centro Meteo Toscana, in its analysis released on the morning of Monday, August 10, confirms that the region is preparing to face another phase of exceptional heat. Temperatures, already high for days, are destined to rise further and reach extreme values in the second part of the week. “We are facing another week of very intense heat with temperatures that could exceed 40° in several areas – explains Centro Meteo Toscana – especially between Thursday, August 13 and Sunday, August 16.” According to meteorologists, the cause is once again the North African anticyclone, which continues to dominate the Mediterranean preventing the entry of cooler air. However, some signs of change are beginning to appear. “The North African anticyclone continues to remain stuck over the Mediterranean even though in recent days the more attentive will have noticed a slightly more pronounced afternoon cumulus development, a sign that the anticyclonic structure is beginning to creak a bit,” continues the Cmt.
Isolated thunderstorms with heat as the protagonist
Despite the presence of the anticyclone, in the next few hours the formation of afternoon thunderstorms on the hills is not excluded, phenomena that could be intense due to the accumulated energy. “Also Monday, August 10 and Tuesday, August 11 there will be a risk of some isolated thunderstorms on the hills, clearly violent given the energy values involved,” continues the analysis of Centro Meteo Toscana. The real heat peak, however, is expected from Thursday, August 13, when the anticyclonic dome should compact again. “The anticyclone will give a final push thus probably recording the highest temperatures of the summer in many areas with peaks up to 40/41° degrees.”
When will the break arrive?
The question many ask is if and when this extreme phase can be interrupted. Centro Meteo Toscana confirms that a change is likely, but the timing remains to be understood. “The fate of the extreme heat seems sealed or at least the time seems ripe for a nice thunderstorm break. It remains to understand the ‘when’ more than the ‘if’.” At the moment, the forecast mathematical models do not agree on the exact date of the entry of cooler air. “So it is impossible to establish with certainty the ‘when’ – the analysis continues – because there is still a lot of divergence among the various forecast models.”
The hypotheses
Centro Meteo Toscana then reviews the main model projections, which outline different scenarios. “For Reading (the European forecast mathematical model, ed) between 19 and 20 there could be a clear air change with strong thunderstorms moving from west to east. Air change means staying in summer but with more bearable temperatures, certainly it will not be the end of summer. Clearly – emphasizes the Cmt – going from 40° to 30/31° would be a great starting point to breathe again and say goodbye to the oppressive heat.” The American Gfs model, on the other hand, sees a slower evolution: “For Gfs the first attempt at a ‘break’ would not succeed – the analysis of Centro Meteo Toscana continues – and we will have an increase in afternoon instability but without organized breaks and with temperatures dropping from 40° to 35/36°. Our idea anyway – continues Centro Meteo Toscana – of those who write to you is that this first phase would still open the way to a subsequent break with an associated temperature drop around August 24-25 and not a continuation of the extreme heat.” Finally, the Canadian Gem model anticipates the change even further: “For Gem the break would be even earlier and strong thunderstorms would arrive on the 17th – explains the Cmt – followed by a drastic temperature drop.”
The last roar before the break
Despite the differences between the models, Centro Meteo Toscana agrees on one point: the extreme heat has its days numbered, but first it will be necessary to get through one last particularly intense phase. “The hopes for a general air change are all there – the analysis concludes – but first, as said, we will have to go through another 6/7 really scorching days.”
