It is a Sunday – that of August 9 – still marked by heat in Tuscany, with values confirming a trend now established for weeks. The Centro Meteo Toscana, in its analysis released on the morning of Sunday, August 9, describes a picture that leaves no room for doubt: the region continues to experience one of the hottest and most persistent phases of the summer. «Even this morning a wake-up with temperatures widely above 20° in our region – explains the Cmt – on the coasts and nearby areas even by several degrees. To find lower values you have to go to the most extreme internal areas and Apennine basins that seem to be a world apart, but even here we are above average.» The high minimums, which no longer drop below 20 degrees in much of the region, confirm a widespread tropical night. A clear sign of the persistence of the subtropical anticyclone that has dominated the weather scene for weeks.
An abnormal summer without real breaks
The Centro Meteo Toscana emphasizes how the season is showing exceptional characteristics in terms of duration and intensity. «A summer that is coming to an end, meteorologically it ends on August 31 by mere statistical convention, dominated entirely by the subtropical high-pressure ridge with temperatures almost always constantly well above the period averages, with few and very brief breaks with more normal temperatures, almost never below average.» The analysis highlights a continuity of heat that has rarely allowed respite. The brief breaks, when they occurred, never brought values truly below average. A situation that, if it had happened in winter with the opposite sign, would have produced weeks of intense frost: a comparison that makes the extent of the anomaly evident.
The perception of heat and the reference to climate parameters
The Centro Meteo Toscana also adds a reflection on the public perception of heat: «In a good part of popular belief summer must be this hot, as in these days. Many, however – explains the Cmt – forget that there are parameters that can explain well the exceptionality of what we are experiencing.» The Tuscan climate, therefore, is not naturally predisposed to such high temperatures for such long periods. The analysis invites considering data and not just subjective perception, entering the broader debate on climate change and the normalization of anomalies.
The week ahead: highs up to 39 degrees
The forecasts for the coming days leave no room for surprises: the heat will continue. «We will go on like this all week, until Sunday, August 16 and perhaps also for much of the following week, with temperatures well above average, so-called “tropical” nights in many lowland locations and highs from 35 to 39 degrees depending on the areas.» According to Centro Meteo Toscana, Tuscany will experience at least another week of very high values, with peaks close to 40 degrees in the inland areas and humidity that will make staying along the coast heavy as well. Tropical nights, now a constant, will continue to make physiological recovery difficult. Centro Meteo Toscana also explains that «the temperatures of these days are at least 6-8 degrees above the seasonal average calculated on the temperatures of the last thirty years in this period, as shown by highly reliable predictive mathematical models.»
Heat thunderstorms in the inland areas
Despite the general stability, high pressure leaves room for afternoon convective phenomena. «It is to be expected in the coming days – continues the Cmt – the development of convective cloudiness in the afternoon in the inland and mountainous areas. From time to time a thunderstorm will pop up here and there, maybe even intense, as happened yesterday in the Umbertide area, province of Perugia, with hail causing damage.» These are the classic heat thunderstorms, sudden and localized, which can bring hail and even violent gusts of wind. Phenomena that do not change the overall picture but can cause discomfort and damage in the affected areas.
When will this phase end?
The question many ask concerns the end of this long heatwave. Centro Meteo Toscana urges caution. «When will this very long hot phase end? Let’s say that sooner or later we will have a circulation change but for now we are working on assumptions. In some runs of various model runs it seems that a change could occur after August 20, but you understand well that at this temporal distance we cannot give certainties for sure.» At the moment, therefore, there are no certainties. Some models show signs of possible change after August 20, but these are still scenarios too far away to be considered reliable. The trend remains that of a continuation of intense heat for at least another week.
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