The truce of the last few days, with more bearable temperatures and a bit of ventilation, is about to give way to a new phase of instability followed by a heatwave that could be the most intense of the summer. This is what emerges from the analysis of the Tuscan Weather Center, released on the afternoon of Friday, July 24, which confirms an imminent change of scenario. According to the Tuscan Weather Center, «having archived the current less extreme thermal phase, we are preparing to experience a more eventful weekend (July 25-26, editor’s note), followed by the fourth wave of extremely hot air that will affect a large part of Europe». A forecast that outlines a double transition: first the return of thunderstorms, then a new push of the African anticyclone.
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First signs of change
The analysis of the Tuscan Weather Center explains: «On Saturday, July 25, winds will rotate from northeast to southeast, a sign of a first change. With some passing cloudiness and temperatures rising by 1/2 degrees». A picture that anticipates the arrival of more humid and unstable air, a prelude to the disturbance expected for Sunday, July 26.
Thunderstorms, abundant rainfall and risk of intense phenomena
The Tuscan Weather Center continues: «On Sunday, July 26, a thunderstorm front will arrive around dawn with thunderstorms first over upper Tuscany and then over a large part of the region». The most exposed areas, according to the analysis, will be the provinces of Lucca, Pistoia, Siena and Arezzo, where «rainfall accumulations locally exceeding 50 millimeters could occur». Particular attention is reserved for the northern coast: «Probable passage of a thunderstorm squall line associated with significant wind gusts in the areas north of Pisa, Versilia primarily, and the province of Massa-Carrara». These are brief but very intense phenomena, capable of generating sudden gusts and violent precipitation. However, rain will not be guaranteed everywhere. The Weather Center warns that «in the other provinces, thunderstorms will be possible but with the concrete risk that some areas will remain dry». An element that is particularly concerning in view of the subsequent heat: «where it doesn’t rain, it will be a big problem because the vegetation is already very stressed by drought».
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Real-time monitoring
As often happens in convective situations, the forecast will require constant updates. The Tuscan Weather Center emphasizes that «the situation will need to be evaluated in real-time during live observation». A recommendation that highlights the high variability of the expected phenomena.
Then the fourth heatwave
Once the unstable period ends, Tuscany will enter a new phase of extreme heat. The CMT confirms a thermal surge that will be felt from mid-week. Monday, July 27, will be a more pleasant day, «thanks to a fairly strong mistral wind and temperatures around 32/33 degrees». But from Tuesday, July 28, the situation will change rapidly: «Persistent sun and constantly rising temperatures», explains the Tuscan Weather Center. On Wednesday, July 29, according to the analysis, «We will already be at 38/40 degrees, and in the following days, things could significantly worsen in terms of heat and humidity». The new heatwave will not be short. The Tuscan Weather Center predicts that «about ten days for sure, maybe more» will be characterized by very high temperatures and conditions of severe discomfort.
