Bad weather returns. And for some areas, it could really be a complicated night. Tuscany is preparing for a worsening of the weather which, according to forecast models, could take on characteristics of strong intensity. The Centro Meteo Toscana, in its latest analysis released on the morning of Wednesday, September 9, urges maximum caution: «We are approaching the intense weather deterioration expected also in our region starting this evening. Surely there will be alerts coming, always to be respected», explains the Cmt in the introduction to the detailed explanation of the storm wave that will hit Tuscany. After the latest forecasts, the operational room of the Protezione civile Toscana has issued an orange alert throughout the region from midnight to 6 pm on Thursday, September 10.
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The Estofex alert and the 2022 precedent
The experts’ bulletin highlights an element that alone describes the scale of the event: «Estofex (the experimental forecasting system that maps the risk of violent storms and extreme bad weather in Europe, editor’s note) has issued a level 3 alert for all of Tuscany. The highest possible». A level not seen since August 18, 2022, when the devastating “derecho” crossed the region causing significant damage and victims. However, the Centro Meteo Toscana clarifies that this is not an automatic forecast of a similar event: «This does not mean that the same will necessarily happen». The level 3 alert indicates a 15% probability of extreme phenomena: flash floods, gusts over 120 km/h, large hail. A threshold that requires attention and prudent behavior.
The most exposed provinces
The Centro Meteo Toscana, while recalling the difficulty of precisely predicting the distribution of storms, identifies three areas that could be most affected: «We have identified in our opinion three provinces that risk more significant phenomena than others: Pisa, Livorno, Florence». According to the analysis, during the night between Wednesday 9 and Thursday 10 September, massive convergences will form right in front of the Pisa and Livorno coasts: «Here the most violent storms will develop. We will see them arise out of nowhere right in front of the coast», the Centro Meteo explains further. A dynamic different from the classic systems arriving from the sea, with movement towards the northeast favored by upper-level winds.
The risk of extreme rainfall and precedents
The forecast highlights a crucial aspect: the possibility of very different rain accumulations even just a few kilometers apart. «A few kilometers further north it might not even rain, while a few kilometers further south there could be 100, 200 millimeters or more». A typical behavior of self-sustaining storms, recalling the tragic Livorno flood of September 10, 2017: «The current situation unfortunately seems very similar to then».
The sequence of phenomena: three main phases
The worsening, according to the Centro Meteo Toscana, could unfold in several stages: «The most violent storm passages will probably be 2, maybe 3», reads the analysis. «The first tonight between 2 and 5 am, in the early hours of Thursday, September 10». «The second – continues the Cmt – in the afternoon of Thursday, September 10 between 2 and 5 pm, probably in slightly more southern areas». «The third – continues the analysis – more uncertain and probably less intense, at dawn on Friday, September 11». A sequence that could generate critical issues especially in the three indicated provinces, with high rain rates and significant accumulations in a short time.
The rest of the region
The worsening will also affect other areas of Tuscany, albeit with lesser intensity: «Elsewhere it will still rain, there will still be storms, even strong ones, but generally the phenomena should be less extreme». The internal and southern areas could see the most significant phenomena tomorrow, between morning and afternoon.
Waiting and monitoring
The experts’ conclusion is clear: «So all that remains is to wait and see if the forecast will be respected». An invitation to caution, constant checking of alerts, and maximum attention in the next 48 hours, when Tuscany will be crossed by one of the most delicate weather phases of recent months.
