The Mediterranean remains under a blanket of intense heat, with temperatures well above the seasonal average and an atmospheric situation characterized by a long phase of stability. The Atlantic flow, particularly weak at this time, is unable to affect the weather pattern, favoring the continuation of very similar days, marked by sun and high temperatures.
“Yesterday was, at least so far – explain from the Centro Meteo Toscana – the hottest day of the year. According to data from the Regional Functional Center, five Tuscan locations exceeded the 40-degree threshold, while as many as 27 stations recorded values above 39 degrees. Numbers that confirm the intensity of the ongoing heat wave.”
Increasing humidity and still high temperatures
Today started with an increase in humidity, which made the heat even harder to bear. “The humidity could cause a slight drop in temperatures, on the order of one or two degrees, but the context will still be characterized by very high values and discomfort conditions, especially during the central hours of the day. A brief respite, because tomorrow a new thermal increase is expected, with the return of 40 degrees in the inner plains,” they further explain from Cmt
Intense heat also next week
How long will it last? The scorching phase is set to continue throughout next week. Mid-period, the formation of some afternoon heat thunderstorms on the Apennines is not excluded, with possible spillovers towards the hills of Siena, Arezzo, and Grosseto and, in some cases, also towards the Florentine plain.
These would still be very localized and temporary phenomena, which could also be intense, but without significantly changing the overall picture.
From Thursday, a new strengthening of high pressure is also possible, with temperatures still close to 40 degrees in the following days.
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Possible slight drop after August 10
Projections indicate a possible reduction of the heat after August 10, “but this would mainly be an effect linked to the progression of the season rather than the arrival of a real atmospheric shift.”
According to current trends, the heat could therefore accompany the Mediterranean at least until the second decade of August, with temperatures probably lower than the current peaks but still high, around 36-38 degrees.
The unknown remains the circulation change
The possible arrival of more organized Atlantic currents remains the most awaited hypothesis to break this long hot phase. However, the scorching air mass present over the Mediterranean could initially hinder the arrival of disturbances, acting as a sort of “thermal shield.”
Much will depend on the direction of the possible change: “An entry of currents from the west could favor even violent thunderstorm episodes, while a more eastern descent, from the northeast, could bring a temperature drop but increase the risk of drought, with the most intense phenomena concentrated along the Adriatic side and southern regions.”
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