After the bad weather phase that crossed Tuscany, the weather situation is finally beginning to show signs of stabilization. And temperatures are also set to undergo a significant change. This is confirmed by the latest analysis from the Centro Meteo Toscana, released on the morning of Friday, September 11, according to which «after the intense bad weather phase that crossed the region, the weather can gradually begin to stabilize». A stability that, according to Cmt, will be accompanied by the return of the Azores high, a typical pressure pattern of the calmer phases of late summer and early autumn. To be clear: the summer heat of recent days is officially behind us.
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Autumn takes the path of normality
The Centro Meteo Toscana highlights how «the summer heat that accompanied us until recent days is now definitively over and now autumn finally seems to have turned towards a normality that many thought was lost». A normality that, however, must contend with an element now recurring in recent seasons: the Mediterranean still very warm. «The thermal surplus of the Mediterranean remains. It will take a long time to be absorbed unless colder currents from the north or northeast intervene to temper the situation», explain the Cmt. Currently, in fact, the Mediterranean Sea shows surface temperature values still 4-5° above average, a condition that has two main effects: «Temperatures slightly higher than normal in high-pressure situations» and «more energy for thunderstorms during storm passages», the analysis continues. Two factors that will continue to influence the weather in the coming weeks, albeit without the extremes recently observed.
The next few days: sun, pleasant climate, and some residual instability
The Cmt analysis then goes into detail on the short-term forecast, outlining a typical picture of «September days»: often clear skies, more bearable temperatures, and some unstable passages confined to inland areas. «Sun gradually returns to dominate the scene but with more bearable temperatures», explain the Cmt. Between Friday 11 and Saturday 12 September it will be possible to have «still a bit of instability along the Apennines during the hottest hours but in a decidedly better context. More sunshine along the coast», the analysis continues. Maximum temperatures will settle between 26 and 29°, values decidedly lower than at the beginning of the week: «Values 5/8° lower than at the start of the week».
Mistral arrives on Sunday: cooler air and dropping lows
The day of Sunday, September 13 will mark a further step towards more autumnal conditions. «Rotation of winds to mistral and the entry of slightly cooler air», writes Centro Meteo Toscana. Maximum temperatures will remain stable between 26 and 29°, while minimum temperatures will drop significantly: «Minimums dropping to 12/15° in the plains. Even lower in the cooler valleys. Very pleasant climate», reports the Cmt. Monday, September 14 is not expected to bring significant changes.
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Slight temperature rise, then new Atlantic front
Midweek, instead, there will be a temporary increase in temperatures. «Tuesday 15 and Wednesday 16 September temperatures will rise a bit due to a prefrontal draw that precedes the possible passage of a new Atlantic front», explain Centro Meteo Toscana. Maximum temperatures could reach 29-31°, while minimums will rise towards 17-18°.
New thunderstorm passage
The prefrontal draw will anticipate a more decisive worsening: «Thursday, September 17 likely new thunderstorm passage with rain, storms, and a sharp temperature drop». A dynamic fully consistent with the climatology of September, a month that alternates mild and sunny phases with even intense stormy passages.
Autumn regains its identity
In conclusion, Centro Meteo Toscana observes how «autumn therefore seems to have taken its path towards normality with the typical alternation between mild and sunny days, the famous “September days”, and stormy passages typical of the rainiest season of the year». A picture that returns to Tuscany a more balanced climate, far from the extremes of recent days and closer to the traditional characteristics of this time of year.
