After the thunderstorms of the past few days that heavily affected Tuscany as well, many have already started talking about the heat and high temperatures arriving in the coming days. But, according to the analysis of the Centro Meteo Toscana, the weather situation is very different from what was experienced until mid-August.
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Weather, the atmospheric circulation has changed
«In the last ten days the atmospheric circulation has changed drastically. This change, already underway, effectively marks the end of the stable and unchanging summer, characterized by very similar days that we experienced from mid-June until mid-August».
After two months characterized by extremely high temperatures, there are still some effects we will have to deal with.
Warm sea, above-average temperatures and more energy for thunderstorms
The main element to consider is the sea still very warm, with temperatures about 5 degrees above average. This entails at least two consequences: «The first is the release of a greater amount of latent heat from the sea and the land, with ground temperatures that can be higher than in the past even with the same temperatures at altitude.
The second concerns thunderstorms: a greater amount of available energy can fuel more intense phenomena, like those observed in recent days, with downpours and strong gusts of wind».
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After mid-August, thunderstorms and storm surges arrived
The general circulation, however, has now profoundly changed and no longer favors periods of lasting stability nor the return of extreme temperatures. «Those at the sea – explain again from Cmt – have probably already noticed the change: after mid-August the situation turned, first with thunderstorms and then with storm surges. Even in the mountains, precipitation above the August monthly average has already been observed, and the trend could continue. A very different situation compared to July, when it was rare even to see a few clouds».
Weather for next week: the heat could be short-lived
Looking at the forecast spaghetti charts, «it is noted that the expected temperature rise for next week could be short-lived. At the same time, next Tuesday a new thunderstorm passage could occur, although its evolution is still to be precisely defined».
August remains warm, but the scenario has changed
It is true that some heat will return, but it must be remembered that it is still August. At the same time, however, it is equally evident how much the situation has changed compared to 15 days ago. In such a scenario, the heat even in Italy could have a limited duration, with the possible return of more unstable conditions. It is also not excluded that any hot phases could be accompanied by dirtier and cloudier skies, rather than the dominant blue of recent weeks.
Weather, more attention to thunderstorms than intense heat
The conclusion, therefore, is quite clear: it does not seem necessary to worry too much about a new return of intense heat. Attention should rather focus on the risk of thunderstorms and locally intense phenomena in the coming weeks, also favored by the still very high temperatures of the Mediterranean.
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