First the thunderstorms. Then the return to normality and the farewell to the stifling heat. Something in Tuscany could really change from a meteorological point of view. Around Ferragosto the region is about to experience an important change. With the return of rain – even heavy, in some cases – and the subsequent drop in temperatures. But let’s go in order. Remembering that for Wednesday, August 12, a yellow alert for thunderstorms was issued from 12 to 20 in many areas of Tuscany. And indeed in the afternoon violent rains broke out, accompanied by strong gusts of wind in various areas of Tuscany. Even a heavy hailstorm at 17:30 blocked traffic on the Fi-Pi-Li at the height of Ginestra Fiorentina. At kilometer 42 towards the sea, a large branch on the road at 18:00 was also reported.
The analysis
On the morning of Wednesday, August 12, the Tuscany Weather Center released a new analysis marking a turning point in the summer season.
️The North African anticyclone shows the first signs of weakening
“The certainties of the North African anticyclone are creaking,” explains the Weather Center, emphasizing how the anticyclonic structure that has dominated for weeks is beginning to lose strength. A dynamic that has already manifested with episodes of instability more marked than expected. “Already on Tuesday, August 11, in some Apennine and Arezzo areas, instability went well beyond the limits with even intense thunderstorms.” The first warnings came precisely in the inland areas, where the energy accumulated from weeks of heat favored more robust convective phenomena.
Widespread thunderstorms
On Wednesday, August 12, as mentioned earlier, even strong thunderstorms are expected, as reiterated by the Cmt. “Afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of the Apennines and many areas among the provinces of Siena, Arezzo, Grosseto, and Florence.” The forecast confirms that instability will not be episodic: new showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon, especially in the inland areas of central and southern Tuscany. “The clear sign that the anticyclone no longer has the strength it had a few days ago.” According to the Tuscany Weather Center, this weakening represents a clear signal of a possible circulation change.
The swan song of the African summer
“From Thursday, August 13, the North African ridge will give one last push northwards. It will raise temperatures up to 40° – explains the Tuscany Weather Center – but most likely rather than labeling it as the fifth heatwave, it would be more accurate to call it the definitive swan song of the African version of summer 2026.” The expected temperature rise in the next 24 hours is not interpreted as a new heatwave, but as the last tail end of the African pattern that has characterized much of the summer.
️Everything changes
The Tuscany Weather Center identifies the next week – starting from Monday, August 17 – as the key moment for a possible seasonal change: the arrival of southern currents and increased cloudiness could pave the way for more widespread and organized phenomena. “From Monday, August 17 – reads the analysis – currents from the south and scattered cloudiness will indicate that something is seriously changing in the general circulation and in the following two days more intense scattered thunderstorms will be possible.”
Read more Today’s solar eclipse, what time it can be seen in Tuscany and practical tips to enjoy the show
Farewell to extreme scenarios
The third decade of August could therefore bring conditions closer to the typical climatology of the period, with more frequent afternoon instability in the inland areas.
Accumulated energy and risk of above-average rain
The thermal contrast and accumulated energy could favor more intense phenomena in areas far from the sea, where instability tends to develop more easily. “Indeed, while for coastal areas the summer could simply shift from extreme to normal in terms of temperatures – explains the Cmt – in the inland areas it could also bring out the clothes of instability and this, with the high energy involved after two months of intense heat, could translate into precipitation well above normal.”
The “August 20” as a watershed
The Tuscany Weather Center reiterates a date it had already indicated in recent weeks: August 20 as a possible turning point of the season. “Clearly it is too early to give all this as certain but today it seems to be the most probable hypothesis. It is no coincidence that everything happens precisely around August 20, a date we have been citing for a couple of months as a possible watershed and that seems to be materializing as such.”
Weekend of farewells to the African anticyclone
According to the analysis, the weekend could represent the last act of the “African” summer, before a return to more balanced conditions. “So all that remains is to say goodbye to the African ridge on the weekend of August 15-16 – concludes the Cmt – and prepare for the long-awaited return to normality.”
Read more Giuseppe Conte to Il Tirreno: «Democracies are struggling and fascism cannot raise its head again»
The evolution seen from the radar
The evolution from the radar (from Windy)
