New confirmations on the arrival of a particularly intense bad weather phase between Thursday night and Friday. Also in Tuscany. “The contrast between the very warm air of North African origin still present over southern Italy and the cooler air coming from France could favor the development of strong thunderstorms,” explain the Centro Meteo Toscana.
The weather scenario
Compared to previous days, the contrast between the two air masses could develop over a much larger area, starting from the Balearic Islands. Contributing will also be a humid flow from the southwest that will cross the Mediterranean for hundreds of kilometers, characterized by sea surface temperatures around 30-31 degrees.
“The expected atmospheric configuration appears particularly delicate and does not allow excluding very intense thunderstorm phenomena. For this reason, the evolution must be monitored with particular attention,” they further explain from Cmt.
Strong thunderstorms are coming
The first infiltrations of cool air are expected on the evening of Thursday, August 20. During this phase, self-sustaining thunderstorms could develop, particularly affecting Liguria and northern Tuscany. Intense phenomena are also possible in several areas of northern Italy, especially in Lombardy and the central Alpine areas.
From the early hours of Friday, bad weather could progressively extend to most of Tuscany, with particular attention to coastal areas and the provinces of Lucca, Pistoia, Prato, and Florence. Significant involvement of the provinces of Pisa and Livorno is not excluded.
“The indices used to assess thunderstorm potential show particularly high values. In such a scenario, the risk of organized thunderstorms, strong wind gusts and downbursts increases, as well as cloudbursts and possible flash floods or flash floods in case of very intense precipitation concentrated in a short period.”
The formation of hailstorms remains possible, especially in inland areas.
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High-resolution simulations are beginning to identify the development of the first thunderstorms even over the open sea. “These systems, upon reaching the coasts, could further intensify and cause locally very heavy precipitation. In some scenarios, accumulations exceeding 100-150 millimeters in a few hours cannot be excluded.”
Complex forecasts
However, the particular situation of the Mediterranean sea surface temperatures makes the prediction of rainfall amounts complex. The high available energy could indeed favor very intense and localized phenomena, difficult to pinpoint precisely well in advance.
The most at-risk provinces
At the moment, it is therefore impossible to determine exactly which areas will be most affected. Based on current scenarios, greater attention should be paid to the provinces north of the Arno and, subsequently, to the areas of Pisa and Livorno.
Finally, a possible involvement of the islands of the Tuscan Archipelago on Friday evening cannot be excluded.
The evolution will be followed in the coming hours, when weather models will be able to provide more precise indications on the trajectory and location of the phenomena.
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