PONTEDERA. What if we suddenly found ourselves having to turn on the radiators? And maybe even watch the snow from the window? Yes, it seems crazy. Especially on days when the beginning of September 2026 feels like mid-July, with temperatures well over 30 degrees throughout Tuscany and that feeling of humidity that just won’t go away. But surely the situation is set to change soon. How? First of all with the return of rain, which will also come in the form of strong and dangerous thunderstorms. And then maybe – but this is still to be deciphered – with the arrival of a dramatic thermal shock capable of practically catapulting us into winter. But let’s go in order.
The situation
To understand what is happening and what will happen in Tuscany, here is the latest analysis released by the Centro Meteo Toscana on the morning of Tuesday, September 8: «After Monday, September 7, another very hot day with peaks of 36/37°, a very rainy and cooler period is about to begin that will accompany us at least until the middle of the month». A clear transition, marking the end of the recent scorching spell and the start of a decidedly more dynamic atmospheric phase.
The first thunderstorms already today: increasing instability
Centro Meteo Toscana points out that «already on the afternoon of Tuesday, September 8 we will see the first afternoon thunderstorms in the inland areas». These are the classic convective phenomena of late summer, capable of striking irregularly but sometimes with significant intensity, especially in hilly and mountainous areas. The situation will tend to worsen further in the next 48 hours: «Wednesday, September 9 another afternoon instability awaits a more intense worsening between the night and Thursday, September 10 with possible accumulations up to 70/100 millimeters due to possible strong semi-stationary thunderstorms». A forecast that draws attention to the possibility of persistent and locally heavy rains, with a hydrogeological risk to monitor. Therefore, a severe alert from the regional Civil Protection cannot be ruled out.
Widespread rain and marked temperature drop
The incoming low-pressure system, fed by cooler air aloft, should involve most of the region. Not surprisingly, Centro Meteo Toscana highlights that «it is still too early to understand in detail where the most violent phenomena will impact but observing the European satellite image it is easy to understand that it will rain practically everywhere». The disturbed passage will be followed by a sharp temperature drop: «Thursday 9 and Friday 10 September maximum temperatures will be 8 to 10 degrees lower than the last days and below 28-29° across the region». A descent that will bring maximum temperatures back to values more appropriate for the second half of September, after a long above-average phase.
After the rain, what happens?
The debate on the possible return of heat is already heated, but Centro Meteo Toscana urges caution: «Many are already rushing to say that heat will return, that we will go back above average, that the next few days will be just a fleeting cool down». According to the analysis, however, the scenario could be very different: «The anomalies in the middle of the Atlantic that caused a stable and very hot summer from mid-June to mid-August have been absorbed», explains Cmt. A change that has already shown its effects in the second half of August, when «many thunderstorms made the month end rainier than usual in several Tuscan provinces». The brief warm flare at the beginning of September, explain Centro Meteo Toscana, would have been just a parenthesis: «Afterwards we experienced this new warmer phase of 4/5 days which, as said, coincidentally precedes an even more intense worsening than those of late August, in a typical situation of a renewed Atlantic flow not seen for months».
The extreme hypothesis
And it is precisely in the long term that the Centro Meteo Toscana analysis introduces a surprising element: «The configuration trend has now started and it will not be a return to summer but rather a preparation towards something much more drastic». The boldest hypothesis is that of a synoptic dynamic capable of radically changing the scenario: «A subsequent elevation of the Azores anticyclone towards Scandinavia with consequent cold response from the North or North/East and the triggering of an Arctic outbreak with more winter than autumn characteristics». A configuration that, if confirmed, could lead to a significant thermal collapse: «If this hypothesis were to occur, temperatures could plunge many degrees and the arrival of snow could not be excluded either both on the Alps (especially eastern) and in the Apennines by the end of the month».
Snow 15 days after 37 degrees?
The question is inevitable: is it realistic to talk about snow at the end of September after reaching 36/37 degrees? Centro Meteo Toscana responds cautiously: «Does it make sense to talk about possible snow in 15 days with 36/37°? We will find out in a couple of weeks…». For now, Cmt invites to mark a date: «Circle in red the week from September 25/26 to the first days of October… and then we will see if the intense heat everyone talks about has returned or if someone in the mountains will have the heating on».
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