It is definitely the most popular question, the refrain that runs among the umbrellas on August afternoons. When will this heat give a break in Tuscany (and beyond)? To provide reflections and answers, here is the latest analysis from the Centro Meteo Toscana.
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Dates and…temperatures
«The oppressive heat continues and will do so decisively at least until August 8 – they write –. Afterwards, a modest attempt to ease the situation is likely, but beware drastically of those who promise you coolness or rain because we are light years away from this possibility», they highlight.
In detail: «The Mediterranean is now literally a pressure cooker with surface temperature peaks often reaching 30° degrees. The most disturbing thing about this data is that the positive anomalies now also reach the deeper waters (up to 50 meters) and this is significant because it makes us understand how these anomalies will accompany us for a very long time also throughout the coming autumn months and probably winter».
The sea
«Any attempt of cooler air to enter will be repelled by this bubble of warm air and before the cooler air can enter over the sea, time will be needed – they specify again from Cmt –. Time necessary to at least partially ease this massive anomaly. Those who believe it is possible to see a front entering from W to E in the first half of August with these thermal anomalies should study the laws of thermodynamics».
And they explain: «It would theoretically be more likely an eventual entry of cooler air from N/E but to do so the formation of a SCAND+ (anticyclone in the Scandinavian area) would be needed, something that for the moment no model hypothesizes even ten days ahead. So let’s be content if from the 40/41° degrees of these days we manage to drop to 36/37° because in the past we have witnessed massive heat waves even around August 20 and with the current situation, if this does not happen, it will already be a stroke of luck».
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The drought
From Cmt, then they talk about the drought issue. Drought which – they explain – «does not concern all of Tuscany, but rather all the coastal areas and the inland areas of the provinces of Pisa, Livorno and Grosseto (part of Siena, Arezzo and Florence have often been blessed by luck and brief thunderstorms that in summer make all the difference in the world)».
In fact, for Cmt, «there will be no serious rain for another 10/15 days, maybe more, except for some sporadic and localized afternoon thunderstorms that may already appear these days, but which will be limited to the Apennines or some inland area. For vegetation in general, there will still be suffering».
The data
And they conclude with data coming from France: «We close with data that perfectly explains the current summer, relating to the Bordeaux station in France. Well, this station from 1920 to 2025 (105 years) had recorded 5 days with temperatures over 40° degrees. Only in the current summer it has recorded 6. That is, more than in all the previous 105 years».
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