In 2047 in Italy childless couples will surpass those with children. This is highlighted by Istat in its latest report. Based on the median scenario assumptions, the number of couples with children is expected to decrease: from the current 7.5 million, equal to 28.1% of the total – less than three families out of 10 – it drops to 5.8 million in 2050 (-22.3%), when they will represent just 21.1% of families, just over one in five. The reduction will affect both couples with at least one child up to 19 years old, who will lose over 1 million units (-22.0%), and those where all children are 20 years or older (-22.8%).
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«The future contraction of couples with children partly depends on the expected fertility levels but also on structural elements, such as the progressive reduction of generations in reproductive age – explains Istat – a consequence of the low birth rate of the past, and the postponement of family formation and childbirth to older ages. This triggers a cumulative process: smaller generations give rise, in turn, to a smaller number of new families with children, even if fertility does not decrease».
Childless couples, on the contrary, record an increase, rising from 5.4 million in 2025 to 5.9 million in 2050 (+8.8%). Their incidence on the total number of families thus rises to 21.4%. A trend that reflects «both the higher frequency of couples who do not have children or postpone their birth, and the aging of the population: with children leaving the family of origin, in fact, many elderly couples form the so-called “empty nest”».
The surpassing in the Center-North will happen earlier
At the national level, the surpassing of childless couples over those with children occurs in 2047, but in the North and Center it happens earlier (respectively, in 2038 and 2044). In the South, however, despite a substantial convergence, couples with children maintain the lead throughout the period. In the hypothesis that union instability continues to grow in the coming years, this will contribute to increasing single-parent households, which would rise from 2.8 to 3.3 million between 2025 and 2050, with an incidence on the total number of families from 10.6% to 12.0%. As already happens today, most single-parent households will continue to be made up of single mothers. However, «an increase in the father component is also expected, with the share of single fathers among all single parents rising from 19.3% to 24.1%. An evolution, if it occurs, that would signal a further transformation of family roles, related to greater participation of fathers in child care at the end of the union» reads the report.
In 2050 more than 4 families out of 10 without cores
The Istat report also shows that in 2050 more than 4 families out of 10 will be without cores. The number of families in Italy increases from 26.7 million in 2025 to 27.9 million in 2043, when it reaches its maximum, then decreases to 27.6 million in 2050. This figure is mainly due to the «progressive extinction of the baby boom generations which leads to a population decline in the medium term. The expected increase in families (+3.5% over the entire period) is mainly supported by families without cores, that is, without the presence of couple or parent-child relationships. These increase from 10.7 million in 2025 to 12.3 million in 2050 (+15.8%), reaching 44.7% of the total families compared to the initial 40.0% – it reads -. Conversely, families with at least one core decrease by 4.6%, from 16.0 million in 2025 to 15.3 million in 2050; their incidence on the total thus falls from 60.0% to 55.3%». A contraction that reflects the main socio-demographic transformations underway, explains Istat: «population aging and increased life expectancy increase the number of people living alone; the persistent decline in birth rates increases the share of individuals without children; marital instability favors the spread of single-person and single-parent families. At the same time, the average family size decreases from 2.20 members in 2025 to 1.98 in 2050, confirming the trend towards smaller and more fragmented family structures. Considering only families with cores, the average number of members decreases from 2.90 to 2.66».
People living alone increase, especially women
Between 2025 and 2050 the number of people living alone will increase from 10.0 to 11.6 million (+16%), with a share of the total families growing from 37.5% to 42.0%. According to Istat, this is a dynamic that «significantly explains the overall increase in the number of families and, at the same time, the reduction of their average size». The growth will be «particularly marked for women living alone, who will increase from 5.3 to 6.3 million (+20.3%). The increase for men living alone is more contained, from 4.7 to 5.2 million (+11.3%)». The growth of people living alone mainly concerns older ages. In 2025, out of 10 million individuals living alone, 4.6 million (46.3%) are at least 65 years old; by 2050 this could rise to 6.6 million out of 11.6, representing 57.0% of people living alone. Due to their greater longevity, women over 65 living alone will increase from 3.2 to 4.5 million (rising from 60.2% to 71.0% of women living alone), while men will increase from 1.4 to 2.1 million (from 30.7% to 40.0% of men living alone). «Living alone can affect the quality of life of the elderly especially after 75 years, when frailty and care needs increase. In 2050, people over 75 living alone will reach 4.7 million (of which 3.4 million are women), 1.7 million more than in 2025, and will rise from 29.5% to 40.3% of people living alone», emphasizes Istat.
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