Italian households are facing an autumn blow estimated at 633 euros more per family. This is reported by Codacons, which has carried out an analysis of the major expenses awaiting families upon their return from summer holidays and in the next quarter, in light of the current geopolitical situation.
Electricity and gas bills, increases up to 205 euros
The item that will most directly and indirectly impact consumers’ pockets is energy, explains Codacons.
The monitored electricity price rose from 112 euros/MWh on average in the September-October-November 2025 quarter to the current 180 euros/MWh, an increase of 60.7%.
It is even worse for gas, with the Psv index rising from 0.358 euros/Smc in the autumn quarter of 2025 to about 0.750 euros/Smc in August, an increase of 109%.
If energy prices remain at current levels, the average family’s expenditure on electricity and gas bills could increase by a total of 205 euros between September and November, according to Codacons’ estimate.
Fuels, up to 145 euros more
Another heavy item is fuel. If retail prices remain at current levels, the additional expense for refueling in the considered quarter, assuming two full tanks per month, would be:
145 euros more for a family with a diesel-powered car;
93 euros more for a gasoline car.
This is estimated again by Codacons, which highlights the impact of tensions in energy markets on families’ daily expenses.
Food, 70 euros more for groceries
Tensions in energy and fuel markets could also reflect on retail prices in many sectors, starting with food.
Assuming a 3% increase in food and beverage prices in the September-November period, a family would spend about 70 euros more on groceries.
Transport, an expected increase of 68 euros
Repercussions are also expected in the transport sector, which is particularly affected by the delicate international situation.
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According to Codacons’ estimates, the additional expense for a family in the next quarter should be around 68 euros.
Eating out costs more
Spending on eating out is also increasing, as confirmed by the latest Istat data.
Based on Codacons’ calculations, the increase for bars, restaurants, pizzerias, and food delivery will be about 20 euros per household in the next quarter.
School, books and school supplies
September also marks the reopening of schools, with families facing expenses for books and school supplies.
The total cost of supplies and books can reach 1,300 euros per student. Currently, according to Codacons, there are increases of 1.8% for textbooks and between 2% and 4% for school supplies.
The increase translates into about 32 euros more spending per family compared to last year.
The autumn blow can reach 633 euros
The total bill for the autumn blow for a family with two cars, one gasoline and one diesel, and a school-age child could therefore reach 633 euros.
A figure on which, Codacons emphasizes, the effect of the war in Iran weighs significantly and which could vary, positively or negatively, depending on the evolution of the international situation in the coming weeks.
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