The summer that Tuscany is experiencing is the second hottest since 1955 but risks being remembered as the coolest of those we still have to live through. This phrase – which has been circulating for some time among those who denounce the terrible threat posed by climate change – has the merit of forcing us to look at the analyses of this summer’s heatwave as if we were driving, with one eye on the road and one on the rearview mirror: not (only) what has been, but what will be.
Read more Maxi cheese recall: over 60 batches withdrawn – All products involved
Lamma data: rising temperatures
The first data presented by the Lamma Consortium on the 2026 season confirm an established trend: average temperatures continue to rise. The maps show how between June and July Tuscany experienced two months exceptionally warmer than the 1991-2020 climate average. In June, anomalies were widespread across the territory, with maximum temperatures generally 2-4 degrees higher and peaks over 4 degrees in the inland and southern areas. Minimum temperatures also remained above normal everywhere. In July, the heat did not ease: maximum temperatures remained widely above average, while it was especially the minimum temperatures that recorded the most marked deviations, with values up to 4-5 degrees above normal in large areas of the coast, Maremma, and the southern part of the region.
A record two-month period
The June-July two-month period thus ranks second in the historical series, surpassed only by 2003. But the figure is destined to change: summer is not over and August began with the fourth heatwave of the season, expected to continue at least until the next weekend. In Florence, temperatures exceeded 36 degrees on 27 days, practically one out of two, and there were just as many tropical nights, with minimums never dropping below 20 degrees. The regional average temperature for the two-month period was 25.6 degrees, compared to 26.2 in 2003.
The effects of prolonged heat
“The striking data is not only the peak, but the duration: when the heat persists even during the night hours, the effects on health, work, and city livability worsen. Lamma’s task is to transform data, forecasts, and scenarios into tools usable by the Region and local authorities, so they can prepare and intervene in time,” said Francesco Meneguzzo, extraordinary commissioner of the Consortium.
The forecasts for the coming days
According to the update of August 3, the subtropical anticyclone will continue to dominate at least until August 7, with maximum temperatures between 38 and 40 degrees in the inland areas and minimums widely above 20 degrees. The hot phase, with an estimated total duration of 11-12 days, should only partially ease between August 8 and 9, while from August 11 a new strengthening of the African anticyclone is expected, with temperatures still above average.
Looking beyond the emergency: Lamma’s tools
Climate change, however, requires looking beyond the emergency. For this reason, Lamma is developing new forecasting and adaptation tools. In autumn, a prototype based on statistical and machine learning techniques will be tested, capable of estimating, for macro-areas of Tuscany and six-hour windows, the probability of lightning strikes in the following 48 hours. The goal is not to replace traditional physical-mathematical models, but to complement them with an additional tool capable of improving support for forecasts and risk management. At the same time, projects continue to assess the impacts of heatwaves on health and work, such as Worklimate, and those developed with Irpet to identify the most vulnerable areas to heat, drought, and floods.
Worklimate: prevention for workers
Worklimate, an Inail project coordinated by Cnr-Ibe with the participation of Lamma, produces thermal stress risk forecasts up to three days ahead for different types of workers, distinguishing those who work outdoors, directly exposed to the sun, from those who mainly work in the shade and also considering the intensity of physical effort. A tool designed specifically to support companies and institutions in preventing risks related to extreme heat.
Climate scenarios for future planning
Alongside short-term weather forecasts, the Consortium also focuses on climate scenarios for the coming decades, through high-resolution simulations on a 2.5-kilometer grid. The goal is to provide the Region and local authorities with increasingly solid scientific bases to plan adaptation interventions, from health protection to land management, in a context where exceptional heat has become the new normal.
