The hypothesis put forward by the Lega, in view of the maneuver, to use the Tfr to also allow those in the mixed system to retire early at 64 years is analyzed by the Cgil’s pension observatory.
According to a simulation carried out by the Observatory, the recalculation could lead to a reduction in the pension benefit of up to 10.6%, with the consequence, the union argues, of placing «the entire cost of the advance on the workers».
Retirement at 64, how the threshold changes
In 2022, to access retirement at 64 years, it was necessary to accrue a pension equal to at least 2.8 times the social allowance, that is 1,310.68 euros per month.
In 2026 the ordinary threshold rose to three times the social allowance, equal to 1,638.72 euros per month. From 2030 a shift to 3.2 times the social allowance is expected and, in the simulation carried out by the Cgil Observatory, the threshold is estimated at 1,818.94 euros per month.
The Cgil simulation on pensions
In the analysis, published by Collettiva, the Observatory took as a reference the latest average annual salary communicated by Inps for 2024 for private sector employees, excluding the agricultural sector and domestic work, i.e. maids and caregivers.
The average salary considered is equal to 24,486 euros gross per year. However, the average data hides a marked gender difference: the average annual salary of men is 27,967 euros, while that of women stops at 19,833 euros.
Tfr and early retirement: what the simulation says
According to the union, the use of the Tfr would not solve the problem related to the threshold necessary to access early retirement.
With an annual salary of 30 thousand euros and 30 years of contributions, for example, the simulated pension at 64 years would be about 1,110 euros per month, therefore well below the 1,638.72 euros required in 2026.
Even adding the estimated Tfr, according to the simulation, the total amount would remain insufficient to reach the expected threshold.
Contribution recalculation, lower benefit
The operation would also have, according to the Cgil analysis, a significant cost on the pension amount.
With 40 years of contributions and an annual salary of 35 thousand euros, the pension calculated with the mixed system would be about 1,726 euros per month. With the contribution recalculation it would instead drop to about 1,543 euros, with a difference of over 182 euros per month and a reduction of 10.6%.
With a salary of 50 thousand euros, the loss would rise to 261 euros per month, while with a salary of 70 thousand euros it would exceed 365 euros per month.
How much can be lost with pension recalculation
According to the Cgil, considering the average remaining life expectancy at 64 years, the cumulative loss would reach about 52,500 euros for incomes up to 35 thousand euros, 75 thousand euros for those at 50 thousand euros and would exceed 105 thousand euros for those at 70 thousand euros.
For women, due to the higher life expectancy, the cumulative loss can be even higher.
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